Track real-time bond market sentiment. Our Bonds Fear & Greed Index combines duration demand, yield curve, credit spreads and real rates into a single 0-100 score, updated daily.
Very pessimistic sentiment. Duration and credit being sold off.
Cautious sentiment. Investors seeking safety.
Balanced sentiment. No clear trend.
Optimistic sentiment. Investors taking risks.
Aggressive bond demand. Stretched appetite for duration and credit.
The Bonds Index measures sentiment in the fixed income market using 6 bond-specific components with zero overlap with equity markets. Duration Risk (TLT momentum) is the primary indicator at 30% weight. Optimized to measure bond demand, duration appetite, and credit conditions. All scores from 0-100:
TLT 14-day price momentum (PRIMARY INDICATOR)
Highest weight component. Measures demand for long-duration Treasuries via iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT). Rising TLT = investors buying bonds = high score. Falling TLT = investors selling = low score. Uses x12 multiplier: TLT +4.2% = score 100, TLT -4.2% = score 0.
10-Year vs 2-Year Treasury spread (FRED API with Yahoo fallback)
Classic recession indicator measuring yield curve shape. Direct logic (term premium perspective): Steep curve (+1.7%+) = high term premium = rewarding long bond holders = high score (greed). Flat curve (0%) = neutral (score 50). Inverted curve (< 0%) = Fed hiking aggressively = bond prices crushed = low score (fear). Score = 50 + (spread x 30), capped 0-100.
High Yield (HYG) vs Investment Grade (LQD)
Measures appetite for credit risk by comparing junk bonds (HYG) to investment-grade bonds (LQD). HYG outperforming LQD = investors reaching for yield = high score (greed for credit risk). HYG underperforming = flight to quality = low score (fear). Uses x20 multiplier: ±2.5% spread = extreme score. Independent of interest rate moves, unlike the previous LQD/TLT measure.
10-Year TIPS yield (inflation-adjusted returns)
Real yield = nominal yield minus inflation expectations. Higher real rates = bond prices fall = fear (low score). Lower real rates = bond prices rise = greed (high score). Centered on 1.5% (current regime average): 1.5% real = score 50, 4% = score 0, -1% = score 100.
Short-term vs long-term TLT volatility (MOVE proxy)
Compares 5-day TLT annualized volatility to 30-day average as a proxy for the MOVE index. Rising short-term volatility = bond market stress = fear = lower score. Calm, stable bond markets = confidence = higher score. Uses x60 multiplier for sensitivity to sudden volatility spikes.
TLT vs SPY relative performance
Measures relative performance between stocks and bonds over 14 days. Bonds outperforming stocks = investors favoring bonds = high score (greed for bonds). Stocks outperforming = investors leaving bonds = low score (fear for bonds). Uses x8 multiplier.
Full cross-asset methodology and data sources available on the About page.
It compares the daily price moves of bonds and one other index over the last 90 trading days — about a quarter. The percentage is the share of their movement that goes together: 30% means roughly a third of what one did on a given day is echoed in the other. Weekends and market holidays are left out, since gold, stocks and bonds do not trade then while crypto does.
“Usually” is the median of that same figure across five years of history, so it says whether today is ordinary for this pair or not. The direction matters as much as the size: two indices can be strongly linked while moving in opposite directions — which is what bonds did for equity portfolios for decades.
The Bonds Fear & Greed Index measures sentiment in the fixed income market using 6 components: Duration Risk/TLT (30%), Yield Curve Shape (20%), Credit Quality/HYG vs LQD (20%), Real Rates (15%), Bond Volatility (10%), and Equity vs Bonds Rotation (5%). TLT momentum is the primary indicator. Credit quality measures high-yield vs investment-grade appetite independently of rate moves.
The yield curve (10Y-2Y spread) is a classic recession indicator. A steep curve means high term premium, rewarding long bond holders (greed). An inverted curve means the Fed is hiking aggressively, crushing bond prices (fear). This component contributes 20% to the index.
Each asset class has unique dynamics requiring tailored indicators. Bonds need 6 components to capture yield curve shape, duration appetite, credit spreads, real yields, volatility, and equity rotation — all specific to fixed income markets with zero overlap with equity indicators.